Sunday, February 26, 2012

Kondratieff Waves and the Greater Depression of 2013 - 2020

We're in the autumn folks, and the winter is about to begin. No, I'm not referring to the annual seasonal weather cycle, but the K-Wave. You may not believe cycle theory invented by a Russian economist almost a century ago. Interesting though - how it lines up almost perfectly with the demographic "Great Bust Ahead", which personally, I have very little doubt about.

Thanks to the folks at Financial Sense for posting this update on the K-Wave.

 There are very few heroes in economics but for me one of the patron saints of that profession should be Nikolai Kondratiev who was shot by firing squad on the orders of Stalin in 1938. He died for what he believed was the truth. His execution was ordered because his academic work propounded that the capitalist system would not collapse as a result of the great depression of 1929. This truth Stalin did not want to hear, thus Nikolai was exterminated and his work suppressed for over two decades.

Click on picture for larger version

Kondratiev's analysis described how international capitalism had gone through many such "great depressions" and as such were a normal part of the international mercantile credit system. The long term business cycles that he identified through meticulous research are now called "Kondratieff" cycles or "K" waves.

Continued here: 

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

we're already in winter

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